Just over a week ago, both stock and bond markets were long overdue for a bounce. And bounce they have. Just like a slingshot, the further and deeper capital markets pulled back through late October, the greater the energy released once the upside rally finally arrived. In the wake of this recent capital market burst, it is worthwhile to evaluate both where we stand today and what we can reasonably expect in the weeks ahead through the end of the year.
Economic & Market Report: Three Market Scares This Halloween
It’s been a haunted ride for capital markets over the last two years. And just when it looked like the horrors were finally coming to an end this past summer, the last few months have seen the stock and bond market demons rise again. While a new dawn may still lie ahead for capital markets in the coming months, here …
Economic & Market Report: Investment Market Battle Lines
The volatility across capital markets continues. Following a great summertime stretch, U.S. stocks have been tumbling to the downside since the start of August. As for the bond market, it was just three months ago in mid-July when the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield rallied its way back to 3.75% before fast tracking its way up to 5.00% in the time …
Economic & Market Report: Forests Over Trees
Global financial markets are shrouded in uncertainty, and the risks to the downside remain pronounced. Stocks continue to waver amid a difficult stretch dating back to the end of July. And bond yields continue to spike to levels last seen nearly two decades ago. While it is reasonable that investors may wish to recoil amid the swirling geopolitical and market …
Economic & Market Report: The Market Impact of War
The world was shaken this past weekend by the sudden and unexpected outbreak of war in Israel. As we continue to watch closely as the geopolitical and humanitarian crisis unfolds, it is also understandable to wonder about the potential impact on capital markets going forward. And history provides a useful guide to our understanding of what to expect from here. …
Economic & Market Report: How Low Can You Go?
The period from mid-August to mid-November is a notorious time of year for capital markets. The pithy investment strategy “Sell in May and go away” is based on the idea of avoiding this stretch of time of year in stocks and picking back up after Halloween. And 2023 has been no exception in this regard. While U.S. stocks had a …
Economic & Market Report: Seeing Red
It’s back. After spending much of the year watching pricing pressures abate, investor concerns are rising about a renewed rise in inflation. It’s easy to see why – U.S. economic growth has been much more resilient than expected, the labor market remains tight, wage pressures are rising, and oil prices are spiking to the upside. And summing all investor fears, …
Economic & Market Report: Leaves Turning Brown
The U.S. stock market continues to hold its ground as summer gradually turns to fall across capital markets. While the headline benchmark S&P 500 Index has been middling at best since the end of July, its overall performance over the past year has been impressive and if anything stocks are continuing to hold their ground following particularly strong early summer …
Economic & Market Report: Red Alert
The U.S. stock market has hit a rough patch in recent weeks. Just as notable has been the sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields over the past month. While it is understandable for U.S. investors to look inward in seeking explanations for why both stocks and bonds are performing poorly as of late despite a domestic economy that remains solid …
Economic & Market Report: The Dog Days of Summer
The dog days of summer have descended on capital markets in recent weeks. Following a blistering rally that began with the government resolution to the banking crises in March and accelerated as we moved into the summer months, U.S. stocks have been fading to the downside since the start of August. What can we take away from this recent pullback …