The primary risk for financial markets in the second half of the year in this Chief Market Strategist’s view is a renewed rise in inflation.  Over the past year, capital markets have been cheered by the notion that the surge in inflation that began in 2021 and peaked in mid-2022 is increasingly fading into the rearview mirror, thus enabling the …

When monitoring capital markets, strange and unexpected relationships can exist between two market segments. Correlation without causation? Perhaps, but these bedfellows often come together for understandable reasons when considered more thoughtfully. Three particular relationships stand out today as worth monitoring for risk and opportunity as we continue through the second half of the year and beyond. The NASDAQ 100 and …

The debate remains ongoing across the economic landscape and financial markets.  Will the economy fall into recession between now and the end of the year?  And will any looming economic slowdown push the U.S. stock market back into bear market territory?  While a number of indicators are flashing conflicting signals, one historically reliable reading within capital markets is emoting a …

Corporate earnings season is underway once again.  With the second quarter of 2023 having just drawn to a close at the end of June, publicly traded companies will soon be coming forward to not only reflect on their recent operating results, but perhaps more importantly to update their projections on performance through the remainder of the this year and next.  …

On Wednesday, I had the opportunity to attend the GIC Teton Economic Outlook conference in Wyoming.  The event brought together some of the best and most thoughtful economic and financial minds in the industry today for an interactive discussion about the broader macroeconomic and investment outlook as well as more focused discussions on labor markets and cryptocurrencies.  What made this event even …

The outlook is strong for asset allocation portfolios heading into the second half of 2023.  From a broad diversification perspective, markets are providing good reasons for optimism across the key asset class spectrum.  Of course, the outlook is not without risks that must also be considered. Stocks. The trend for stocks as measured by the S&P 500 is definitively to the …

It has arguably been the most anticipated and predicted economic recession in U.S. history.  It has many of the classic trappings leading up to the event including aggressively tightening central bank, inverted yield curve, contracting manufacturing activity, declining leading economic index, and tightening bank lending standards just to name a few.  The only twist is that the actual recession that …

Summary The bond market is regaining its footing as inflationary pressures continue to wane, with investors showing confidence in improving conditions for the asset class. Favoring U.S. Treasuries over investment-grade corporate bonds and mortgage-backed securities is recommended for the second half of 2023 due to the current market environment. The yield premium for owning corporates remains thin relative to history, …

Investors are being provided with some meaningful signals for optimism as the sun brightens and the weather warms with the summer about to begin.  This does not mean, however, that we should be ready for blue skies from now on, as the blue days that made markets challenging at times over the last eighteen months may not yet be gone. …

“Sell in May and go away” is an age-old stock market adage.  It’s based on the principle that stocks historically have performed better during the period from November to April versus the stretch from May to October.  Does this maxim still hold up today? Meaningful historical outperformance. The notion of “sell in May and go away” does have merit.  For example, …